We’ve been having some technical issues lately so will be using next week to fix them, will be back either later in the week or the week after.
Chart of the Day
One of the most interesting developments at the start of 2022 was the resilience of gold prices in the face of rising real yields. Gold has gained even further momentum since then as concerns about a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the potential global diplomatic fallout, continue to mount. The move could build its own momentum if we soon break past the previous high from mid-2021.
Macro
US housing starts fell to 1,638,000 annualized in January, but the rise in building permits points to a better outlook.
One of the first business surveys for February, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, fell to 16.0.
At its latest policy meeting, Turkey’s central bank left its policy rate on hold after the recent cuts – the Turkish lira has stabilized lately, compared to the prior slump anyway.
Markets
It was another weak day for equities, again apparently due to concerns about the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
Considering oil prices fell, though, perhaps it wasn’t all down to Russia.
There were some interesting moves on a sector basis, with the tech stocks and financials both falling together – for much of the pandemic, they have moved in opposite directions based on moves in bond yields.
The only sector up over the past month is energy, which could benefit further if a Russia invasion pushes up oil prices.
Silver hasn’t been doing quite as well as gold.
Platinum and palladium prices have been doing very well, in part due to potential supply concerns as Russia is a key producer, but also as global car production recovers.
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